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Getting Financial Predictions Right

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From the November 1st, 2017 Human AI Collaboration: A Dynamic Frontier Conference; David Bailey, Leading Figure, High-performance Scientific Computing and Computational Mathematics looks at...
1. AI and other software tools are being utilized extensively in the world of finance.
2. However, “backtest overfitting” (statistical overfitting of market data) remains a challenge.
3. We illustrate the dangers of backtest overfitting in the design of stock funds and in market forecasting
4. Considerable care must be taken when using AI methods, for finance or anything else, to ensure they are based on sound statistics.
Category
Academic
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